The path to a majority · FTP Race Signal by bandFTP Race SignalThe FTP Race Signal is our own read of a race, not a repost of anyone else's. It weighs the prediction market, qualifying public polling, the verified prior result and fundraising together. The market is one input and never the whole answer, so the Signal and the market disagree on a seat when the other evidence says they should.
House435 SEATS · ALL ON THE BALLOT · 218 TO CONTROL
Democrats reach 218 without a toss-up. Republicans need all 14 toss-ups and 9 seats now leaning Democratic.
Senate100 SEATS · 35 ON THE BALLOT · 51 TO CONTROL
Democrats need 2 of the 4 toss-ups. Republicans need 3 of the 4 toss-ups, and the Vice President's vote, to hold the chamber.
The 2 independents caucus with the Democrats and are counted on that side.
The four maps · FTP Race Signal by stateFTP Race SignalThe FTP Race Signal is our own read of a race, not a repost of anyone else's. It weighs the prediction market, qualifying public polling, the verified prior result and fundraising together. The market is one input and never the whole answer, so the Signal and the market disagree on a seat when the other evidence says they should.
Redrawn for 2026 · 138 districts vote on new linesThe same ballots, two mapsEach district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines and again on the new lines. The same ballots, two maps. TN-9 went from Harris +43.4 to Trump +21.1 — a 64.5-point move. One district — TX-15 — was redrawn without its margin moving, and is on the file from the state's own map comparison.18 districts change presidential winner · 11 toward Republicans, 7 toward Democrats
D+50EVENR+50MOVEMEMBER AT THE REDRAWThe member at the redrawWhere the member has since retired or is running elsewhere, the name is still theirs — the district is what changed.
D+50EVENR+50MOVEMEMBER AT THE REDRAWThe member at the redrawWhere the member has since retired or is running elsewhere, the name is still theirs — the district is what changed.
100 more districts were redrawn with smaller shifts
D+50EVENR+50MOVEMEMBER AT THE REDRAWThe member at the redrawWhere the member has since retired or is running elsewhere, the name is still theirs — the district is what changed.
D+50EVENR+50MOVEMEMBER AT THE REDRAWThe member at the redrawWhere the member has since retired or is running elsewhere, the name is still theirs — the district is what changed.
FL-20+2.4VacantVacant at the redrawSheila Cherfilus-McCormick, whose term ended 21 April 2026. No member held this district on the day the map changed.
MissouriSupreme Court of Missouri, von Glahn v. Hoskins3 September 2026Under appealOn 21 September 2026 the Eighth Circuit held that Missouri must use HB 1's districts in November and directed an injunction that takes effect at 5 p.m. CDT on 28 September unless the Supreme Court of the United States acts first. Until then Missouri votes on its 2022 districts.
Supreme Court of Missouri barred HB 1's districts from the November 2026 general election unless voters approve them3 September 2026
Supreme Court of the United States denied Missouri's application to stay that decision8 September 2026
Supreme Court of the United States stayed a federal district court's 8 September order requiring HB 1's districts10 September 2026
United States Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit held that HB 1's districts must be used and directed an injunction that takes effect at 5 p.m. CDT on 28 September21 September 2026
VirginiaSupreme Court of Virginia, Scott v. McDougle8 May 2026
Supreme Court of Virginia held the referendum vote null and void and left the maps the court issued in 2021 in effect8 May 2026
Supreme Court of the United States denied a stay of that decision15 May 2026