OPEN SEATSafe RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +29.2 to Trump +30.2 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
Byron Donalds (R) has held this seat since 2021 and is not running; the district was redrawn in May 2026.
PresidentialR+29.2→R+30.2Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+29.2) and the new (R+30.2). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in May 2026; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 95.9¢ Republican.
Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Fundraising · Lean RR 35.73-to-1 in receipts.Market · Safe RR 95.9¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+32.64 in 2024.FundraisingR 35.73 to 1MarketR 95.9¢2024 resultR+32.6
MarketR 95.9¢2024R+32.6FundraisingR 35.73 to 1
No public polls. The market favors Schwartzel.
The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
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Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+32.6
Byron Donalds (R)
66.3% to 33.7% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. Its partisan lean barely changes (Trump +29.2 to Trump +30.2 in the 2024 presidential vote).Source ↗
def. Kari L. Lerner (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.