FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
A seat that went Republican by 5 points in 2022 is now priced dead even.
Toss-up
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Toss-upD 51¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Prior result · Lean RR+5.26 in 2022.MarketD 51¢2022 resultR+5.3
MarketD 51¢2022R+5.3
No public polls. The market favors Miller.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Total contributions, cycle to date through July 31, 2026.What these filings sayThe headline figure is L. Total Monetary Contributions (B + J), Campaign to Date as published by Georgia Government Transparency and Campaign Finance Commission; it is not identical to total receipts as the FEC defines them.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.