Texas 24th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 21-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 92.4¢ today.

Likely R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Fundraising · Lean RR 12.11-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Likely RR+20.6 in 2024.Market · Likely RR 92.4¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 92.4¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+20.6

Beth Van Duyne (R)

60.3 — 39.7 · 2024 general election

def. Sam Eppler (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

R 12.11 to 1

Kevin Burge$209.9K

Beth Van Duyne$2.54M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.