DEFENDED SEATLikely D to Safe DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. It keeps its Central Valley base and adds Stockton voters. The new lines flip the district, going from Trump +5.4 to Harris +0.4 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Adam Gray (D) has held this seat since 2025 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in August 2025.
PresidentialR+5.4→D+0.4Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+5.4) and the new (D+0.4). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in August 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 96.5¢ Democratic.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 96.5¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Toss-upD+0 in 2024.MarketD 96.5¢2024 resultD+0.0
MarketD 96.5¢2024D+0.0
No public polls. The market favors Gray.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
—
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
D+0.0
Adam Gray (D)
50.0% to 50.0% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesCalifornia voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, which replaced the commission-drawn map with one drawn by the Legislature for the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. It keeps its Central Valley base and adds Stockton voters. The new lines flip the district, going from Trump +5.4 to Harris +0.4 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. John Duarte (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Gray leads 1.8 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.