FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
A seat that went Republican by 3 points in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.
Lean D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Likely DD 85¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Polling · Toss-upD+1.3 (average of 3 pollsters, Jun 11).Prior result · Toss-upR+2.5 in 2024.MarketD 85¢PollsD+1.32024 resultR+2.5
MarketD 85¢PollsD+1.32024R+2.5
Market and polls both favor Mendoza.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
D+1.3
Normington Petts ↗C-Jun 8 to 11 · n=500 LVD+2D sponsorD+2 · D sponsor · counts as EVEN at half weight
Ragnar ↗BMar 12 to 14 · n=400 LVD+3Conservatives for America sponsorD+3 · Conservatives for America sponsor · counts as D+5 at half weight
PPP ↗BOct 14 to 15 · n=561 RVD+1House Majority PAC sponsorD+1 · House Majority PAC sponsor · counts as R+1 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+2.5
Juan Ciscomani (R)
50.0% to 47.5% · 2024 general election
def. Kirsten Engel (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through July 1, 2026; Mendoza leads 1.1 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.