Arizona 6th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Jereme Lance Peters (L) and Iman Bah (other).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
A seat that went Republican by 3 points in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.
Lean D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Likely DD 85¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Toss-upD+2 — Normington Petts, Jun 22.Prior result · Toss-upR+2.5 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 85¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
D+2
Ragnar ↗ B
Mar 10 - 12 · n=400 LV
D+3
R SPONSOR
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+2.5
Juan Ciscomani (R)
50 — 47.5 · 2024 general election
def. Kirsten Engel (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
1.2 to 1
JoAnna Mendoza$7.35M
Juan Ciscomani$6.17M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 03-31 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.