Alaska At-Large District · Elections Intelligence

FTP Race Signal

FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.

The market has run well past this seat's history: a 2-point Republican gain in 2024, priced at 88¢ today.

Likely R

Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R

Prior result · Toss-upR+2.44 in 2024.Polling · Lean RBegich +8.5 (average of 3 pollsters Begich +8.5, Oct 3).Market · Likely RR 88¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.

Market and polls both favor Begich.

As of October 12.

Market

BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 88¢

Kalshi market · checked 2:09 PM ET

View market on Kalshi ↗

Polling

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above

Begich +8.5

Alaska Survey Research ↗ A+ Oct 1 to 3 · n=1,512 LV Begich +5.4 Independent

NYT/Siena ↗ A+ Sep 22 to 30 · n=476 RV Begich +6 Independent

Fabrizio ↗ A- Sep 8 to 11 · n=800 LV Begich +14 AARP sponsor

Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days.

Earlier polls · 5

Bullfinch ↗ C- Sep 1 to 6 Begich +3 Hill sponsor Begich +3 · Hill sponsor · counts as Begich +5 at half weight

AK Survey Research ↗ A+ Aug 2 to 5 · n=1,371 LV Begich +7 Independent

GBAO ↗ B Aug 3 to 5 · n=500 LV Begich +4 Sponsor unconfirmed (released by the Hill campaign) Begich +4 · Sponsor unconfirmed (released by the Hill campaign) · counts as Begich +6 at half weight

Data for Progress ↗ B- Jul 28 to Aug 4 · n=567 LV Begich +10 Independent

Tavern Research ↗ May 18 to 27 · n=452 LV Begich +4 Independent

Prior result

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above

R+2.4

Nicholas J. Begich III (R)

51.2% to 48.8% · 2024 general election

def. Mary Peltola (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

Fundraising

BandRATIO TO 1Parity1 to 5Lean5 and above

4 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026 · thru Jul 29

Nicholas J. Begich III$5.47M ↗$3.12M cash

Bill Hill$1.34M ↗$515.9K cash

No report on file with the Federal Election Commission for Eric Hafner as of October 4, 2026 · ERIC HAFNER FOR CONGRESS.

Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through July 29, 2026; Begich leads 4 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.