Alaska At-Large District
DEFENDED SEAT
THE NOVEMBER FIELD · 4 CANDIDATES
FTP RACE SIGNAL
No market prices this seat. The most recent general-election poll puts the Republican ahead by 14 points — a 2-point Republican hold in 2024.
Likely R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Toss-upR+2.44 in 2024.Polling · Likely RR+14 — The Bullfinch Group, Jul 28.
Signal clarityLow — prior and polling disagreeas of 2026-07-28
Polling moved 8 points toward the Democrat over 42 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
—
No settling contract prices this race, so there is no market reading.
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
R+14
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+2.44
Nick Begich (R)
51.22 — 48.78 · 2024 general election
def. Mary Peltola (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
7.7 to 1
Nicholas J. Begich III$152.3K
Bill Hill$1.17M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 02-13 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.