Arkansas 3rd District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Christopher Hocevar (I) and Bobby Wilson (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 32-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 98.8¢ today.
Safe R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Fundraising · Lean RR 15.53-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Safe RR+32.03 in 2024.Market · Safe RR 98.8¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 98.8¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+32.03
Steve Womack (R)
63.8 — 31.77 · 2024 general election
def. Caitlin Draper (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
R 15.53 to 1
Robb Ryerse$120.5K
Steve Womack$1.87M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.