Illinois 4th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

No market prices this seat. The most recent general-election poll puts the Democrat ahead by 19 points — a 40-point Democratic hold in 2024.

Likely D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Prior result · Safe DD+40.2 in 2024.Polling · Likely DD+19 — The Bullfinch Group, Aug 9.

Signal clarityLow — no market priceas of 2026-08-09

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

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No settling contract prices this race, so there is no market reading.

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+19

The Bullfinch Group ↗ C- Jul 31 - Aug 3 · n=653 RV · HYPOTHETICAL MATCHUP D+19 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+40.2

Chuy García (D)

67.5 — 27.3 · 2024 general election

def. Lupe Castillo (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Patty Garcia$358.7K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.