FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 40-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 97.1¢ today.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Prior result · Safe DD+40.2 in 2024.Market · Safe DD 97.1¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Likely DD+19 (The Bullfinch Group, Aug 3).2024 resultD+40.2MarketD 97.1¢PollsD+19
MarketD 97.1¢PollsD+192024D+40.2
Market and polls both favor Garcia.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above