New Jersey 11th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Alan B. Bond (other).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market has run well past this seat's history — a 13-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 98¢ today.
Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Safe DD 98¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Polling · Likely DD+17 — GBAO, Mar 19.Prior result · Likely DD+13 in 2024.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 98¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
D+17
GBAO ↗ B
Mar 8 - 10 · n=500 LV
D+17
D SPONSOR
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+13
Mikie Sherrill (D)
56.5 — 43.5 · 2024 general election
def. Joseph Belnome (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
2.8 to 1
Analilia Mejia$1.82M
Joe Hathaway$657.7K
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.