Alaska U.S. Senate
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: David Leslie (D) and Dan J. Sullivan (R).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
A seat that went Republican by 13 points in 2020 is now a coin flip, the Democrat narrowly ahead at 64¢.
Toss-up
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Polling · Lean DD+6 — Data for Progress, Aug 17.Market · Toss-upD 64¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Likely RR+12.75 in 2020.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 5¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days · polling moved 8 points toward the Democrat over 47 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 64¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
D+6
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+12.75
Dan Sullivan (R)
53.9 — 41.15 · 2020 general election
def. Al Gross (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
1.8 to 1
Mary Peltola$15.58M
Dan Sullivan$8.50M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.