Florida 6th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Michael Gist (I), Andrew Parrott (L) and Alec Pavlik (other).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 33-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 95¢ today.
Safe R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Safe RR 95¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+33.07 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 95¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+33.07
Michael Waltz (R)
66.53 — 33.46 · 2024 general election
def. James Stockton (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
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PULLED 08-24 · PERIOD 07-29 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.