FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 33-point Democratic hold in 2020, priced at 98.7¢ today.
Safe D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Safe DD 98.7¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Safe DD+33.13 in 2020.Polling · Safe DD+20 (UNH, Sep 21).Fundraising · Lean DD 18.74-to-1 in receipts.MarketD 98.7¢2020 resultD+33.1PollsD+20FundraisingD 18.74 to 1
MarketD 98.7¢PollsD+202020D+33.1FundraisingD 18.74 to 1
Market and polls both favor Reed.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above