Rhode Island U.S. Senate — Elections Intelligence

THE MATCHUP PRIMARY SEP 09 DECIDES THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE

PRIMARY · SEP 09 · DEMOCRATIC KXSENATERID-26 ↗

Decides which Democrat appears on the November ballot.

CB EVEN Jack Reed 100¢ Connor Burbridge 4¢

Kalshi primary market · checked 6:36 PM

NOV 3 · THE GENERAL ELECTION SENATERI-26 ↗

Michael Bahry holds the Republican nomination. The party market prices the seat, not the people — it carries whichever Democrat wins on September 9, 2026.

DEMOCRAT 98¢

KALSHI PARTY MARKET · CHECKED 08/27Democratic nomineeDetermined by the primary on September 9, 2026Michael BahryRepublican · Nominee

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 33-point Democratic hold in 2020, priced at 98¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 98¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Safe DD+33.13 in 2020.Polling · Safe DD+20 — UNH, Aug 27.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 98¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+20

UNH ↗ C Aug 20 - 24 · n=750 LV · HYPOTHETICAL MATCHUP D+20 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+33.13

Reed, John F. (D)

66.48 — 33.35 · 2020 general election

def. Waters, Allen R. (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Democratic nominee determined Sep 9, 2026.

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.