Elections Intelligence

Peter Crosby

UT-2U.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Safe R to Likely R Underdog
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Likely R

Crosby is the Democratic nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Crosby at 5.6¢ against Moore's 96.8¢, down 1.4¢ since August 3. The polling average has Moore ahead by 2.5 points, and Moore leads 42.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Crosby · Democratic contract
5.6¢
▼ 1.4¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Peter Crosby by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 7.9¢ · low 4.5¢Oct 12
Peter CrosbyDemocratic
5.6¢
Blake D. MooreRepublican
96.8¢

11,907 traded · 5,647 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Crosby v Moore

Metric by metric
Crosby
Moore
5.6¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
96.8¢
$60.2K
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$2.54M
$23.3K
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$1.89M
34%
Latest pollLighthoust Research · Sep 24
39%
No office on file
Holds now
U.S. Representativesince 2021

The 2026 race

Utah 2nd District
Polling average
R+2.5

Average of 3 pollsters, September 10 to September 24.

Prior result
R+23.8

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Celeste Maloy.

Fundraising
42.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.