Florida 7th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 13-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 69¢ today.

Lean R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Toss-upD+2 — Public Policy Polling (D), May 21.Market · Lean RR 69¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+13.05 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 69¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

D+2

Public Policy Polling (D) ↗ May 20–21, 2026 · n=570 RV · HYPOTHETICAL MATCHUP D+2 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+13.05

Cory Mills (R)

56.53 — 43.47 · 2024 general election

def. Jennifer Adams (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

3.9 to 1

Bale Dalton$1.38M

Ryan Elijah$356.0K

PULLED 08-24 · PERIOD 07-29 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.