South Carolina 2nd District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Dayna Alane Smith (other).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 19-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 93¢ today.
Likely R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Fundraising · Lean RR 69.39-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Likely RR+19.29 in 2024.Market · Likely RR 93¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 93¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+19.29
Joe Wilson (R)
59.53 — 40.25 · 2024 general election
def. David Robinson II (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
R 69.39 to 1
Zyon Khalifa$12.4K
Joe Wilson$861.1K
PULLED 08-25 · PERIOD 06-03 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.