Brad Finstad
MN-1What the Signal reads
Lean R
Finstad is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Finstad at 77¢ against Johnson's 23¢, up 1¢ since August 3. The polling average has Finstad ahead by 4.7 points, and the two campaigns have raised about the same.
The market
Finstad · Republican contract
77.0¢
▲ 1.0¢since August 3
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Brad Finstad by name.
218,976 traded · 171,372 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Finstad v Johnson
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Minnesota 1st DistrictPolling average
R+4.7
Average of 3 pollsters, February 3 to September 21.
Prior result
R+17.1
2024 general election, won by Brad Finstad.
Fundraising
1 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 22.