Texas 16th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Arturo Andujo (D).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market has run well past this seat's history — a 19-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 99.7¢ today.
Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Safe DD 99.7¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Likely DD+19.07 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 99.7¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+19.07
Veronica Escobar (D)
59.5 — 40.43 · 2024 general election
def. Irene Armendariz Jackson (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
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PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.