New Jersey 5th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Adam Rueda (other).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market has run well past this seat's history — a 9-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 93.1¢ today.
Likely D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Likely DD 93.1¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 85.62-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Lean DD+9.3 in 2024.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 7¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 93.1¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+9.3
Josh Gottheimer (D)
54.6 — 45.3 · 2024 general election
def. Mary Jo Guinchard (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
D 85.62 to 1
Josh Gottheimer$4.77M
Sean Kirrane$55.7K
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.