FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is: a 52-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 76¢ today.
Lean R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upR+2.3 (average of 3 pollsters, Oct 4).Market · Lean RR 76¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+51.6 in 2024.PollsR+2.3MarketR 76¢2024 resultR+51.6
MarketR 76¢PollsR+2.32024R+51.6
Market and polls both favor Scott.
Polling moved 7 points toward the Democrat over 13 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above