Vermont Governor — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market and the latest general-election poll carry this seat — Vermont has no verified prior result on file.

Likely R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Polling · Likely RR+11 — UNH, Jul 22.Market · Likely RR 92¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

Polling moved 8 points toward the Democrat over 21 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 92¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+11

UNH ↗ C Jul 15 - 20 · n=954 LV R+11 INDEPENDENT

UNH ↗ C Jul 15 - 20, 26 · n=954 LV R+11 INDEPENDENT

University of New Hampshire Survey Center ↗ July 15–20, 2026 · n=954 LV R+11 INDEPENDENT

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

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No verified prior result

The last general election in this seat has not been imported from an official state canvass, so the signal has no baseline.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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No comparable filings from both major-party nominees.