North Carolina 1st District

DEFENDED SEATToss-up to Lean DREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedNorth Carolina's legislature redrew two districts in October 2025 (SB 249) by moving counties between the 1st and 3rd districts. The 1st takes in Beaufort, Carteret, Craven, Dare, Hyde and Pamlico counties and gives Greene, Lenoir, Wayne and Wilson counties to the 3rd. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +3.1 to Trump +11.5 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗

Donald G. Davis (D) has held this seat since 2023 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in October 2025.

PresidentialR+3.1→R+11.5Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+3.1) and the new (R+11.5). Same ballots, new map.

FTP Race Signal

FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.

This district was redrawn in October 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 67¢ Democratic.

Lean D

Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R

Polling · Lean DD+5.7 (average of 3 pollsters, Oct 8).Market · Lean DD 67¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Toss-upD+1.68 in 2024.

Market and polls both favor Davis.

The market moved 4¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days · polling moved 8 points toward the Republican over 27 days. As of October 12.

Market

BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 67¢

Kalshi party market · checked 2:09 PM ET

View market on Kalshi ↗

Polling

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above

D+5.7

co/efficient ↗ B Oct 6 to 8 · n=623 LV R+1 R-leaning firm

Neighborhood Research ↗ C Oct 1 to 6 · n=303 LV D+10 Independent

GQR ↗ A Sep 29 to Oct 4 · n=500 LV D+8 D-leaning firm

Average of the latest poll from each of 3 pollsters in the last 30 days.

Earlier polls · 2

GBAO ↗ B Sep 8 to 11 · n=500 LV D+7 House Majority PAC sponsor D+7 · House Majority PAC sponsor · counts as D+5 at half weight

GQR (D) ↗ June 22 to 28, 2026 · n=500 LV D+4 D-leaning firm

Prior result

BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above

D+1.7

Donald G. Davis (D)

49.5% to 47.8% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesNorth Carolina's legislature redrew two districts in October 2025 (SB 249) by moving counties between the 1st and 3rd districts. The 1st takes in Beaufort, Carteret, Craven, Dare, Hyde and Pamlico counties and gives Greene, Lenoir, Wayne and Wilson counties to the 3rd. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +3.1 to Trump +11.5 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗

def. Laurie Buckhout (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

Fundraising

BandRATIO TO 1Parity1 to 5Lean5 and above

1.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026 · thru Jun 30

Donald G. Davis$4.29M ↗$3.57M cash

Laurie Buckhout$3.77M ↗$1.83M cash

Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Davis leads 1.1 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.