North Carolina 1st District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Tom Bailey (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 2-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 61¢ today.
Toss-up
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Polling · Toss-upD+4 — GQR (D), Jun 28.Market · Toss-upD 61¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Toss-upD+1.68 in 2024.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 61¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
D+4
GQR (D) ↗
June 22–28, 2026 · n=500 LV
D+4
D SPONSOR
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+1.68
Don Davis (D)
49.52 — 47.84 · 2024 general election
def. Laurie Buckhout (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
1.1 to 1
Donald G. Davis$4.29M
Laurie Buckhout$3.79M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.