Mario Diaz-Balart
FL-26What the Signal reads
Diaz-Balart is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Likely R. The market has Diaz-Balart at 90¢ against Locklin's 12¢, unchanged since August 3. Diaz-Balart leads 5.9 to 1 in money raised.
The market
This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Mario Diaz-Balart by name.
13,524 traded · 5,784 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Diaz-Balart v Locklin
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Florida 26th District2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Mario Diaz-Balart.
Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 29.
THEIR SEAT WAS REDRAWNR+35.0 → R+18.4
Florida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. It becomes much less Republican, going from Trump +35 to Trump +18.4 in the 2024 presidential vote.