Mississippi U.S. Senate
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Ty Pinkins (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market has run well past this seat's history — a 10-point Republican hold in 2020, priced at 93.6¢ today.
Likely R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Lean RR+9.98 in 2020.Polling · Likely RR+13 — Impact Research, Apr 20.Market · Likely RR 93.6¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 93.6¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
R+13
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+9.98
Hyde-Smith, Cindy (R)
54.11 — 44.13 · 2020 general election
def. Espy, Mike (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
1.6 to 1
Scott Colom$2.38M
Cindy Hyde-Smith$3.83M
PULLED 08-22 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.