Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) was appointed in April 2018, won the November 2018 special election and is running for re-election. Before that: Thad Cochran (R).
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: a 10-point Republican hold in 2020, priced at 91.5¢ today.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Prior result · Lean RR+9.98 in 2020.Polling · Lean RR+9.3 (average of 3 pollsters, Aug 13).Market · Likely RR 91.5¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.2020 resultR+10.0PollsR+9.3MarketR 91.5¢
MarketR 91.5¢PollsR+9.32020R+10.0
Market and polls both favor Hyde-Smith.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
R+9.3
Data for Progress ↗B-Aug 5 to 13 · n=1,018 LVR+6D sponsorR+6 · D sponsor · counts as R+8 at half weight
Impact Research (D) ↗April 8 to 12, 2026 · n=500 LVR+3SPLC Action Fund sponsorR+3 · SPLC Action Fund sponsor · counts as R+5 at half weight
Impact Research ↗BJun 18 to 22 · n=500 LVR+13SPLC Action Fund sponsorR+13 · SPLC Action Fund sponsor · counts as R+15 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+10.0
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
54.1% to 44.1% · 2020 general election
def. Mike Espy (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Hyde-Smith leads 1.6 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.