OPEN SEATSafe R to Likely RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedA Utah judge struck down the Legislature's map for violating Proposition 4, the anti-gerrymandering measure voters passed, and on Nov. 10, 2025, picked a map submitted by the plaintiffs for 2026. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +20.3 to Trump +29 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Celeste Maloy (R) has held this seat since November 2023, after a special election, and is not running; the district was redrawn in November 2025.
PresidentialR+20.3→R+29Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+20.3) and the new (R+29). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in November 2025; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 96.8¢ Republican.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upR+2.5 (average of 3 pollsters, Sep 24).Fundraising · Lean RR 42.12-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Likely RR+23.77 in 2024.Market · Safe RR 96.8¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.PollsR+2.5FundraisingR 42.12 to 12024 resultR+23.8MarketR 96.8¢
MarketR 96.8¢PollsR+2.52024R+23.8FundraisingR 42.12 to 1
Market and polls both favor Moore.
The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days · polling moved 3.3 points toward the Republican over 14 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+23.8
Celeste Maloy (R)
58.0% to 34.2% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesA Utah judge struck down the Legislature's map for violating Proposition 4, the anti-gerrymandering measure voters passed, and on Nov. 10, 2025, picked a map submitted by the plaintiffs for 2026. It becomes somewhat more Republican, going from Trump +20.3 to Trump +29 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Nathaniel E. Woodward (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.