FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is: a 20-point Republican hold in 2022, priced at 71¢ today.
Lean R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Polling · Toss-upD+2 (Tulchin Research (adjusted), Aug 4).Market · Lean RR 71¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+20.26 in 2022.PollsD+2MarketR 71¢2022 resultR+20.3
MarketR 71¢PollsD+22022R+20.3
Market favors Faber, but polls favor Kulewicz.
The market moved 5¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above