Elections Intelligence

Maryland 8th District

DEFENDED SEAT
SAFE D
Jamie Raskin Democratic · Incumbent
KALSHI PARTY MARKETCHECKED Aug 27
DEMOCRAT 99.9¢4.8¢
View market on Kalshi ↗
Cheryl Riley Republican · Challenger
Also on the ballot: Nancy Wallace (G).
FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 56-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 99.9¢ today.

Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Safe DD+56.34 in 2024. Market · Safe DD 99.9¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold. Fundraising · Lean DD 447.59-to-1 in receipts.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 99.9¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+56.34

Jamie Raskin (D)

76.8 — 20.46 · 2024 general election

def. Cheryl Riley (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
D 447.59 to 1
Jamie Raskin$7.43M
Cheryl Riley$16.6K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.

BALLOT & DATES Primary 06-23 · HELDGeneral Nov 3, 2026 D settled · R settled · G settled COMPARE THE CANDIDATES ⇄