Maryland 8th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Nancy Wallace (G).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 56-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 99.9¢ today.
Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Prior result · Safe DD+56.34 in 2024.Market · Safe DD 99.9¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 447.59-to-1 in receipts.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 99.9¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+56.34
Jamie Raskin (D)
76.8 — 20.46 · 2024 general election
def. Cheryl Riley (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
D 447.59 to 1
Jamie Raskin$7.43M
Cheryl Riley$16.6K
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.