Massachusetts 4th District — Elections Intelligence

THE MATCHUP PRIMARY SEP 01 DECIDES THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE

PRIMARY · SEP 01 · DEMOCRATIC KXMAPRIMARY-04D26 ↗

Decides which Democrat appears on the November ballot.

JP EVEN Jake Auchincloss 98¢ Jason Poulos 4¢

Kalshi primary market · checked 6:36 PM

NOV 3 · THE GENERAL ELECTION KXHOUSERACE-MA04-26 ↗

Thomas Stalcup holds the Republican nomination. The party market prices the seat, not the people — it carries whichever Democrat wins on September 1, 2026.

DEMOCRAT 99.9¢

KALSHI PARTY MARKET · CHECKED 08/27Democratic nomineeDetermined by the primary on September 1, 2026Thomas StalcupRepublican · Nominee

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 97-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 99.9¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Prior result · Safe DD+97.2 in 2024.Market · Safe DD 99.9¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 99.9¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+97.2

Jake Auchincloss (D)

97.2 — 0 · 2024 general election

def. Other candidates (other). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Thomas Stalcup$25.5K

Democratic nominee determined Sep 1, 2026.

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.