Virginia 4th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 35-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 98¢ today.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 98¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Safe DD+34.9 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 98¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+34.9

Jennifer L. McClellan (D)

67.34 — 32.44 · 2024 general election

def. William J. “Bill” Moher III (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Jennifer L. McClellan$1.14M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-15 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.