Elections Intelligence

Victoria Spartz

IN-5U.S. House H architectural icon
INCUMBENT Lean R Favored
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Lean R

Spartz is the Republican incumbent, defending a seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Spartz at 83¢ against Ford's 19¢, down 5¢ since August 3. The polling average has Spartz ahead by 4 points, and Spartz leads 2.2 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Spartz · Republican contract
83.0¢
▼ 5.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Victoria Spartz by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 90¢ · low 83¢Oct 12
Victoria SpartzRepublican · incumbent
83.0¢
J.D. FordDemocratic
19.0¢

27,047 traded · 19,762 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Spartz v Ford

Metric by metric
Spartz
Ford
83.0¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
19.0¢
$1.33M
RaisedFEC, through June 30
$582.1K
$230.0K
Cash on handFEC, through June 30
$314.7K
48%
Latest pollImpact Research, Ford sponsor · Jul 20
46%
U.S. Representativesince 2021
Holds now
No office on file

The 2026 race

Indiana 5th District
Latest poll
R+4

Impact Research, Ford sponsor, July 20.

Prior result
R+18.6

2024 general election, won by Victoria Spartz.

Fundraising
2.2 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.