South Dakota At-Large District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Jack Pittman (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 44-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 97.1¢ today.
Safe R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Fundraising · Lean RR 5.5-to-1 in receipts.Market · Safe RR 97.1¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+44.09 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 97.1¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+44.09
Dusty Johnson (R)
72.04 — 27.96 · 2024 general election
def. Sheryl Johnson (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
R 5.5 to 1
Nicole Gronli$261.8K
Marty J. Jackley$1.44M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.