Oregon Governor
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Alexander Ziwahatan (I) and LaNicia Duke (other).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market has run well past this seat's history — a 3-point Democratic hold in 2022, priced at 87¢ today.
Lean D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Likely DD 87¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Toss-upD+3.42 in 2022.Polling · Toss-upR+4 — POS, Jul 9.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 87¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
R+4
POS ↗ A
Jun 22 - 24, 26 · n=600 RV
R+4
R SPONSOR
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+3.42
Kotek, Tina (D)
46.96 — 43.54 · 2022 general election
def. Drazan, Christine (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
1.5 to 1
Tina Kotek$7.55M
Christine Drazan$5.05M
PULLED 08-18 · PERIOD 08-18 · STATE FILING
Total receipts this cycle.