FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: a 3-point Democratic hold in 2022, priced at 76¢ today.
Lean D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Lean DD 76¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Toss-upD+3.42 in 2022.Polling · Toss-upD+2 (average of 3 pollsters, Oct 4).MarketD 76¢2022 resultD+3.4PollsD+2
MarketD 76¢PollsD+22022D+3.4
Market and polls both favor Kotek.
Polling moved 6 points toward the Democrat over 25 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
POS ↗AJun 22 to 24 · n=600 RVR+4Drazan sponsorR+4 · Drazan sponsor · counts as R+2 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 3 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Total contributions, January 1 to October 4, 2026.What these filings sayThe headline figure is Total Contributions (cash and in-kind), calendar year 2026, ORESTAR account summary as published by Oregon Secretary of State, Elections Division (ORESTAR); it is not identical to total receipts as the FEC defines them.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.