John Nagel · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Safe D

Nagel is the Republican challenger for a seat the Signal rates Safe D. The market has Nagel at 5.5¢ against Omar's 95.6¢, up 1.6¢ since August 3. Omar leads 7.8 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Nagel · Republican contract

5.5¢

▲ 1.6¢since August 3

Aug 342 daily readings · high 7.7¢ · low 2.3¢Oct 12

John NagelRepublican

5.5¢

Ilhan OmarDemocratic · incumbent

95.6¢

31,600 traded · 21,931 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Nagel v Omar

Metric by metric

Nagel

Omar

5.5¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

95.6¢

$747.0K

RaisedFEC, through July 22

$5.83M

$46.9K

Cash on handFEC, through July 22

$1.35M

No office on file

Holds now

U.S. Representativesince 2019

The 2026 race

Minnesota 5th District

Prior result

D+49.8

2024 general election, won by Ilhan Omar.

Fundraising

7.8 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 22.