California 1st District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

A seat that went Republican by 31 points in 2024 is now priced for the Democrat.

Safe D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Safe DD 99.9¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Safe RR+30.6 in 2024.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 99.9¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

—

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+30.6

Doug LaMalfa (R)

65.3 — 34.7 · 2024 general election

def. Rose Penelope Yee (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.2 to 1

Mike McGuire$1.83M

James Gallagher$1.49M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.