Ohio U.S. Senate (Special)
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Jeffery M. Kanter (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
A seat that went Republican by 6 points in 2022 is now a coin flip, the Democrat narrowly ahead at 56¢.
Toss-up
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Polling · Toss-upD+4 — Wedgewood Polls, Aug 14.Market · Toss-upD 56¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Prior result · Lean RR+6.11 in 2022.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 4¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days · polling moved 7 points toward the Democrat over 44 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 56¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
D+4
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+6.11
Vance, JD (R)
53.03 — 46.92 · 2022 general election
def. Ryan, Tim (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
2.7 to 1
Sherrod Brown$38.57M
Jon Husted$14.36M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.