FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
A seat that went Republican by 6 points in 2022 is now a coin flip, the Democrat narrowly ahead at 60¢.
Toss-up
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Toss-upD 60¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Polling · Toss-upD+3.2 (average of 11 pollsters, Oct 6).Prior result · Lean RR+6.11 in 2022.MarketD 60¢PollsD+3.22022 resultR+6.1
MarketD 60¢PollsD+3.22022R+6.1
Market and polls both favor Brown.
The market moved 4¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days · polling moved 6.4 points toward the Republican over 27 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Tulchin Research ↗B-Jul 29 to Aug 4 · n=600 LVD+4John Kulewicz campaign (Ohio AG) sponsorD+4 · John Kulewicz campaign (Ohio AG) sponsor · counts as D+2 at half weight
NYT/Siena ↗A+Jun 15 to 28 · n=601 LVR+3Independent
Tulchin Research ↗B-Jun 12 · n=600 LVD+4John Kulewicz campaign (Ohio AG) sponsorD+4 · John Kulewicz campaign (Ohio AG) sponsor · counts as D+2 at half weight
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through June 30, 2026; Brown leads 2.6 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The special election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.