DEFENDED SEATLikely RREDISTRICTEDWhy the lines changedFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. It becomes much less Republican, going from Trump +35 to Trump +18.4 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
Mario Diaz-Balart (R) has held this seat since 2023 and is running for re-election; the district was redrawn in May 2026.
PresidentialR+35→R+18.4Same ballots, new mapThis district’s 2024 presidential vote, counted on the old lines (R+35) and the new (R+18.4). Same ballots, new map.
FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
This district was redrawn in May 2026; the 2024 result on the previous lines does not describe it. The market prices the new seat at 90¢ Republican.
Likely R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Fundraising · Lean RR 5.93-to-1 in receipts.Market · Likely RR 90¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+41.84 in 2024.FundraisingR 5.93 to 1MarketR 90¢2024 resultR+41.8
MarketR 90¢2024R+41.8FundraisingR 5.93 to 1
No public polls. The market favors Diaz-Balart.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
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Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+41.8
Mario Diaz-Balart (R)
70.9% to 29.1% · 2024 general election · previous district linesPrevious district linesFlorida redrew its congressional map in a 2026 special session. Gov. Ron DeSantis signed the new plan (HB 1-D) on May 4, 2026; it changed 21 of the state's 28 districts. It becomes much less Republican, going from Trump +35 to Trump +18.4 in the 2024 presidential vote.Source ↗
def. Joey Atkins (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.