Florida 26th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Deborah Ann Meidinger Hosey (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 42-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 91¢ today.
Likely R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Fundraising · Lean RR 5.93-to-1 in receipts.Market · Likely RR 91¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+41.84 in 2024.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 91¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+41.84
Mario Diaz-Balart (R)
70.92 — 29.08 · 2024 general election
def. Joey Atkins (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
R 5.93 to 1
Nicole Locklin$347.7K
Mario Diaz-Balart$2.06M
PULLED 08-24 · PERIOD 07-29 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.