Arizona 2nd District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Curtis Goodwin (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 9-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 70¢ today.
Lean R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Polling · Toss-upR+3 — GBAO, Jun 25.Market · Lean RR 70¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Lean RR+9 in 2024.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 5¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 70¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
R+3
GBAO ↗ B
Jun 11 - 15 · n=500 LV
R+3
D SPONSOR
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+9
Eli Crane (R)
54.5 — 45.5 · 2024 general election
def. Jonathan Nez (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
2.7 to 1
Jonathan Nez$3.52M
Elijah Crane$9.48M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-01 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.