FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 9-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 70¢ today.
Lean R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Lean RR 70¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Lean RR+9 in 2024.Polling · Lean RR+8.7 (average of 2 pollsters, Aug 24).MarketR 70¢2024 resultR+9.0PollsR+8.7
MarketR 70¢PollsR+8.72024R+9.0
Market and polls both favor Crane.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Average of the latest poll from each of the 2 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Earlier polls · 1
GBAO ↗BJun 11 to 15 · n=500 LVR+3Nez sponsorR+3 · Nez sponsor · counts as R+5 at half weight
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+9.0
Elijah Crane (R)
54.5% to 45.5% · 2024 general election
def. Jonathan Nez (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through July 1, 2026; Crane leads 2.6 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.