Washington 4th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 6-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 94.7¢ today.

Likely R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Prior result · Lean RR+5.86 in 2024.Market · Likely RR 94.7¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 94.7¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+5.86

Dan Newhouse (R)

52.02 — 46.15 · 2024 general election

def. Jerrod Sessler (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

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Amanda McKinney$981.8K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-15 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.