Pennsylvania 14th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Adam Halfhill (other).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 33-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 97.3¢ today.
Safe R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Fundraising · Lean RR 20.9-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Safe RR+33.2 in 2024.Market · Safe RR 97.3¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
The market moved 2¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 97.3¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+33.2
Guy Reschenthaler (R)
66.6 — 33.4 · 2024 general election
def. Chris Dziados (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
R 20.9 to 1
Alan Bradstock$201.4K
Guy Reschenthaler$4.21M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.