Oklahoma 5th District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Robert Henri (I) and Austin Nieves (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 21-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 90.9¢ today.
Likely R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Likely RR 90.9¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Likely RR+21.39 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 90.9¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+21.39
Stephanie I. Bice (R)
60.69 — 39.31 · 2024 general election
def. Madison Horn (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
4.3 to 1
Jena Nelson$449.4K
Stephanie I. Bice$1.94M
PULLED 08-25 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.