Carlos De La Cruz · Elections Intelligence

What the Signal reads

Toss-up

Cruz is the Republican nominee for an open seat the Signal rates Toss-up. The market has Cruz at 39¢ against Garcia's 62¢, down 14¢ since August 3. The polling average has Cruz ahead by 3 points, and Cruz leads 1.1 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗

Cruz · Republican contract

39.0¢

▼ 14.0¢since August 3

This contract settles on whether a Republican holds the seat, not on Carlos De La Cruz by name.

Aug 342 daily readings · high 53¢ · low 34¢Oct 12

Carlos De La CruzRepublican

39.0¢

Johnny GarciaDemocratic

62.0¢

174,241 traded · 129,332 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Cruz v Garcia

Metric by metric

Cruz

Garcia

39.0¢

MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET

62.0¢

$1.05M

RaisedFEC, through June 30

$931.7K

$272.4K

Cash on handFEC, through June 30

$323.1K

45%

Latest pollNormington Petts, House Majority PAC sponsor · Aug 31

44%

No office on file

Holds now

No office on file

The 2026 race

Texas 35th District

Latest poll

R+3

Normington Petts, House Majority PAC sponsor, August 31.

Prior result

D+34.7

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Greg Casar.

Fundraising

1.1 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through June 30.