FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market prices this seat about where its history left it: a 27-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 95.8¢ today.
Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Prior result · Safe RR+27.19 in 2024.Market · Safe RR 95.8¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.2024 resultR+27.2MarketR 95.8¢
MarketR 95.8¢2024R+27.2
No public polls. The market favors Alfonso.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Total receipts in the 2025 to 2026 two-year cycle, through July 22, 2026; Alfonso leads 3.1 to 1, short of the 5 to 1 at which fundraising takes a place on the spectrum.
The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.