Elections Intelligence

Hawaii Governor

DEFENDED SEAT
SAFE D
Josh Green Democratic · Incumbent
KALSHI PARTY MARKETCHECKED Aug 27
DEMOCRAT 98¢4.4¢
View market on Kalshi ↗
Gary Cordery Republican · Challenger
Also on the ballot: John "Raghu" Giuffre (other), Shawn "Bu Laia" K. Hill (other), Clyde "Mac" McClain Lewman (other) and Calvert A. Williamson (other).
FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 26-point Democratic hold in 2022, priced at 98¢ today.

Safe D
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Safe DD 98¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold. Prior result · Safe DD+25.9 in 2022.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
D 98¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
D+25.9

Green, Josh (D)

62.2 — 36.3 · 2022 general election

def. Aiona, Duke (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
11.6 to 1
Josh Green$3.51M
Gary Cordery$301.9K

PULLED 08-19 · PERIOD 07-24 · STATE FILING

Total receipts this cycle.

BALLOT & DATES Primary 08-08 · HELDGeneral Nov 3, 2026 D settled · R settled · other no primary COMPARE THE CANDIDATES ⇄