Adam Hamilton
KSWhat the Signal reads
Toss-up
Hamilton is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Toss-up. The market has Hamilton at 39¢ against Marshall's 63¢, up 23¢ since July 31. The polling average has Hamilton ahead by 1.9 points, and the two campaigns have raised about the same.
The market
Hamilton · Democratic contract
39.0¢
▲ 23.0¢since July 31
This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Adam Hamilton by name.
3,323,552 traded · 2,403,701 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET
Hamilton v Marshall
Metric by metricThe 2026 race
Kansas U.S. SenatePolling average
D+1.9
Average of 8 pollsters, September 16 to October 10.
Prior result
R+11.4
2020 general election, won by Roger Marshall.
Fundraising
1 to 1
Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 15.