Texas U.S. Senate
OPEN SEAT
Also on the ballot: Joshua Cain (I), Ronald Evans (I), Camencia Ford (I), Jade Simmons (I) and Ted Brown (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market is less sure of this seat than its history is — a 10-point Republican hold in 2020, priced at 51¢ today.
Toss-up
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Polling · Lean DD+6 — Slingshot Strategies, Aug 27.Fundraising · Lean DD 7.41-to-1 in receipts.Market · Toss-upR 51¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Lean RR+9.64 in 2020.
Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 51¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
D+6
YouGov ↗ B+
Aug 5 - 13 · n=1,200 RV
D+3
PARTISAN
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+9.64
John Cornyn (R)
53.51 — 43.87 · 2020 general election
def. MJ Hegar (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
D 7.41 to 1
James Talarico$68.56M
Ken Paxton$9.25M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.