FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
A seat that went Republican by 10 points in 2020 is now a coin flip, the Democrat narrowly ahead at 64¢.
Lean D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Fundraising · Lean DD 7.41-to-1 in receipts.Market · Toss-upD 64¢: traders' price for a Democratic win, a flip from Republican.Polling · Toss-upD+2.9 (average of 14 pollsters, Oct 8).Prior result · Lean RR+9.64 in 2020.FundraisingD 7.41 to 1MarketD 64¢PollsD+2.92020 resultR+9.6
MarketD 64¢PollsD+2.92020R+9.6FundraisingD 7.41 to 1
Market and polls both favor Talarico.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
Average of the latest poll from each of 14 pollsters in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.