New York 4th District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 2-point Democratic hold in 2024, priced at 90.3¢ today.

Likely D

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Market · Likely DD 90.3¢ — traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 133.52-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Toss-upD+2.29 in 2024.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

The market moved 4¢ toward the Republican in the last 7 days.

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

D 90.3¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

D+2.29

Laura A. Gillen (D)

51.07 — 48.77 · 2024 general election

def. Anthony D’Esposito (R). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

D 133.52 to 1

Laura Gillen$5.10M

Anthony D'Esposito$38.2K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.