FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: a 2-point Democratic gain in 2024, priced at 91.5¢ today.
Likely D
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Market · Likely DD 91.5¢: traders' price for a Democratic hold.Fundraising · Lean DD 19.25-to-1 in receipts.Prior result · Toss-upD+2.29 in 2024.MarketD 91.5¢FundraisingD 19.25 to 12024 resultD+2.3
MarketD 91.5¢2024D+2.3FundraisingD 19.25 to 1
No public polls. The market favors Gillen.
The market moved 2¢ toward the Democrat in the last 7 days.As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above