Tennessee 3rd District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Dean Arnold (I), Jean Howard-Hill (I), Rodney Joe King (I), Donnie Lynn Ownby (I) and Edward John Roland (I).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 38-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 96.9¢ today.
Safe R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Market · Safe RR 96.9¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+38.16 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 96.9¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+38.16
Charles J. “Chuck” Fleischmann (R)
67.51 — 29.36 · 2024 general election
def. Jack Allen (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
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Charles J. "Chuck" Fleischmann$2.33M
PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 07-17 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.