Texas 3rd District — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market has run well past this seat's history — a 25-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 95.1¢ today.

Safe R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Prior result · Likely RR+24.91 in 2024.Market · Safe RR 95.1¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 95.1¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

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No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+24.91

Keith Self (R)

62.45 — 37.55 · 2024 general election

def. Sandeep Srivastava (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

1.4 to 1

Evan Hunt$446.5K

Keith Self$645.5K

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle. Parity — neither campaign leads by enough for fundraising to take a place on the spectrum.