Kentucky U.S. Senate — Elections Intelligence

FTP RACE SIGNAL

The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 24-point Republican hold in 2022, priced at 94.7¢ today.

Likely R

SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R

Fundraising · Lean RR 9.08-to-1 in receipts.Polling · Likely RR+11 — PPP, Jan 1.Prior result · Likely RR+23.61 in 2022.Market · Likely RR 94.7¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.

Signal clarityHighas of 2026-08-27

MARKET BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above

R 94.7¢

Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27

View market on Kalshi ↗

POLLING BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above

R+11

PPP ↗ B Dec 18 - 19, 25 · n=650 V R+11 D SPONSOR

PRIOR RESULT BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above

R+23.61

Rand Paul (R)

61.8 — 38.19 · 2022 general election

def. Charles Booker (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.

FUNDRAISING BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above

R 9.08 to 1

Charles Booker$1.10M

Andy Barr$9.98M

PULLED 08-04 · PERIOD 06-30 · FEC

Total receipts this cycle.