FTP Race SignalA composite of market, polling and money. The prediction-market price anchors it; a polling average moves it: the last 30 days, or the three most recent pollsters when fewer polled. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half. When the three most recent independent pollsters each have the race within three points, it is a Toss-up unless the market is already decisive. Fundraising counts only at a five-to-one gap. Past results are context, not inputs. A rating changes only when the evidence clears the line.
The market has run well past this seat's history: a 20-point Republican hold in 2020, priced at 96.2¢ today.
Safe R
Safe DLikely DLean DToss-upLean RLikely RSafe R
Fundraising · Lean RR 9.08-to-1 in receipts.Polling · Likely RR+12 (average of 2 pollsters, Aug 27).Prior result · Likely RR+19.53 in 2020.Market · Safe RR 96.2¢: traders' price for a Republican hold.FundraisingR 9.08 to 1PollsR+122020 resultR+19.5MarketR 96.2¢
MarketR 96.2¢PollsR+122020R+19.5FundraisingR 9.08 to 1
Market and polls both favor Barr.
As of October 12.
Market
BandPRICEToss-up50¢ to 65¢Lean65¢ to 82¢Likely82¢ to 95¢Safe95¢ and above
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 10Likely10 to 20Safe20 and above
R+12
GSG ↗B-Aug 24 to 27 · n=600 LVR+9Sponsor unconfirmed (released by the Booker campaign)R+9 · Sponsor unconfirmed (released by the Booker campaign) · counts as R+11 at half weight
PPP ↗BDec 18 to 19 · n=650 votersR+11Booker sponsorR+11 · Booker sponsor · counts as R+13 at half weight
Average of the latest poll from each of the 2 most recent pollsters; fewer than three polled in the last 30 days. Polls paid for by a candidate, party or allied group move 2 points toward the other side and count half.
Prior result
BandPOINTSToss-up0 to 5Lean5 to 12Likely12 to 25Safe25 and above
R+19.5
Mitch McConnell (R)
57.8% to 38.2% · 2020 general election
def. Amy McGrath (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.