Elections Intelligence

Leela Gray

FL-13U.S. House H architectural icon
CHALLENGER Lean R Competitive underdog
Full race page →

What the Signal reads

Lean R

Gray is the Democratic challenger for a seat the Signal rates Lean R. The market has Gray at 27¢ against Luna's 75¢, up 3¢ since July 31. The polling average has Luna ahead by 2 points, and Luna leads 2.6 to 1 in money raised.

The market

Kalshi ↗
Gray · Democratic contract
27.0¢
▲ 3.0¢since July 31

This contract settles on whether a Democrat holds the seat, not on Leela Gray by name.

Jul 3148 daily readings · high 64¢ · low 22¢Oct 12
Leela GrayDemocratic
27.0¢
Anna Paulina LunaRepublican · incumbent
75.0¢

32,196 traded · 25,432 open. Prices are the yes ask; sides may not sum to 100.Checked 2:09 PM ET

Gray v Luna

Metric by metric
Gray
Luna
27.0¢
MarketKalshi, 2:09 PM ET
75.0¢
$1.22M
RaisedFEC, through July 29
$3.23M
$683.3K
Cash on handFEC, through July 29
$1.47M
51%
Latest pollHart Research, D sponsor · Aug 27
46%
No office on file
Holds now
U.S. Representativesince 2023

The 2026 race

Florida 13th District
Polling average
R+2

Average of 3 pollsters, May 20 to August 27.

Prior result
R+9.7

2024 general election · previous district lines, won by Anna Paulina Luna.

Fundraising
2.6 to 1

Raised 2025 to 2026, through July 29.

The general election is on November 3, which is 22 days away.