Mississippi 1st District
DEFENDED SEAT
Also on the ballot: Cliff Johnson (D) and Johnny Baucom (L).
FTP RACE SIGNAL
The market prices this seat about where its history left it — a 40-point Republican hold in 2024, priced at 96.2¢ today.
Safe R
SAFE DLIKELY DLEAN DTOSS-UPLEAN RLIKELY RSAFE R
Fundraising · Lean RR 27.71-to-1 in receipts.Market · Safe RR 96.2¢ — traders' price for a Republican hold.Prior result · Safe RR+39.62 in 2024.
Signal clarityMediumas of 2026-08-27
MARKET
BandPRICEToss-up50–65¢Lean65–82¢Likely82–95¢Safe95¢ and above
R 96.2¢
Kalshi party market · checked Aug 27
View market on Kalshi ↗
POLLING
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–10Likely10–20Safe20 and above
—
No qualifying general-election poll has been retrieved for this race.
PRIOR RESULT
BandPOINTSToss-up0–5Lean5–12Likely12–25Safe25 and above
R+39.62
Trent Kelly (R)
69.81 — 30.19 · 2024 general election
def. Dianne Dodson Black (D). Margin verified against retrieved official results.
FUNDRAISING
BandRATIO TO 1Parity1–5Lean5 and above
R 27.71 to 1
Kelvin Buck$36.2K
Trent Kelly$1.00M
PULLED 08-22 · PERIOD 03-31 · FEC
Total receipts this cycle.